Coldheartedtruth

A new poll from SUSA showing McCain up 6 points in Indiana moved the Real Clear Politics number from 275-263 for Obama to 274-264 for McCain. I mentioned in my post the other day updating the race that Indiana was the one state where outdated polling was giving an advantage to Obama when it seems clear that it is a state that McCain should win. That being said, being up only six points in a state where Bush won by 21% should not exactly give any McCain fans the warm and fuzzies. But one may expect several states that went to Bush big in 2000 and 2004 being much closer, while ultimately coming out with the same conclusion.

Keep in mind that RCP is "only" considering polling averages at the state level to come to their conclusions. So as of right now, if the election were held today and Americans were to go out and vote exactly as the state polling averages would show... John McCain (and not Barack Obama) would end up winning the election. Even as Obama would likely win the popular vote.

Not entirely by coincidence, my own formula (which includes more than just the state polling average) shows the exact same states going to the exact same candidates. Go figure!

A new survey from Rasmussen showing John McCain with a 48-46 lead over Barack Obama in Florida is the third straight survey there to show a McCain lead of 2 points or better. As a result Florida moves from the Toss-Up category into the Slight Lean Republican category.

Florida is the third state with an established rating to shift designations and the first one to move towards McCain as a result of the shift. It's also the first state to move into or out of the Toss-Up category as a result of a switch, but keep in mind that a Slight Lean designation in a state still indicates a very competitive race for a state that could easily go either way.

I finally got a chance to watch most of the Saddleback Presidential forum and all I can say is that Barack Obama should work even harder to minimize the amount of time he spends on the same stage with Senator McCain. It was suggested here that the consensus was that McCain took Obama's lunch money, but I would rather believe that Obama lost his own lunch money. There was nothing about McCain during that debate that would ever suggest he would take anyone's lunch money.

Between the hemming and hawing and umming and ahhing, Obama still managed to find time to articulate "nuanced" answers to fairly simple questions... which is a long winded way of saying he hedged on a couple of straight forward questions. First and foremost he need to retire the expression "above my pay grade" (he's running for the most powerful job in the world, folks... who does he defer to?). Tell us what you believe... that's what the question asked you to do. Secondly, I don't see how he wins American voters by hinting at the idea that perhaps the United States should look in the mirror in regards to what "evil" exists in the world. No matter how many loonies out there believe this, it won't win him any votes with the moderate swing voter.

You only have to compare and contrast the question regarding the most "difficult decision you have ever had to make" to see the major difference between these two men. Obama used the chance as an attempt to make a political point about a political decision that quite frankly was never much of a cut and dry issue to begin with. I mean, it's not like he had to actually cast a vote to authorize military action in Iraq... all he had to do was sit on the sidelines and play armchair general. Heck, we all made a decision as to whether or not to support the military action in Iraq... and I don't recall it being that agonizing. Meanwhile, McCain gives a gut wrenching personal story that seems unimaginable. I can barely fathom what that would have taken or how many times he had to relive that decision.

The reality is that Obama came across like a college professor giving us all a lecture about what he believes. Not sure I learned anything that I already didn't know, and I found it hard to connect to him emotionally. McCain came across as a sincere guy giving genuine insight to who he really is as a person. He connected right away with the audience with both his humor and sincerity. Much to my surprise he looked to be the more calm and controlled candidate. I think he was genuinely more likable as well. I think it would be nearly impossible to watch this forum objectively and not go away impressed by John McCain.

Rasmussen has released a couple of polls on Senate races that are worthy of comment. One suggests that a race that was widely thought to be competitive is slipping into the uncompetitive category while the other suggests that a race once thought uncompetitive may well be competitive.

MAINE (August 12, 500 LV, MoE +/-4.4%)

55% Collins (R - Inc.)
40% Allen (D)

GEORGIA (August 14, 500 LV, MoE +/-4.4%)

50% Chambliss (R - Inc.)
44% Martin (D)

Rasmussen speculates that the closeness of the Georgia race may be a post-primary bounce for Martin, who won a runoff election on August 5, and that's certainly a possibility. Most primary bounces last about a week, but having one last longer isn't unheard of. I believe a better explanation is that Martin is picking up support from those who supported his runoff opponent, accounting for his 4% increase from Rasmussen's July poll, his previous best in Rasmussen's polling.

Chambliss' support hasn't moved much in all of the polling to date, however, and what little movement there's been has been downward. All of Rasmussen's polling to date has had Chambliss between 50% and 54%, but this poll is the first one he's been at 50% in and the only one he reached 54% in was back in May.

The Maine race, on the other hand, has effectively been a battle between Collins and Allen for a year or so now, despite the fact that there were other Democrats running for the nomination. Rasmussen's polling has seen movement by both candidates in recent months as Allen first gained on Collins in spring polling and now Collins is pulling away from Allen in summer polling. There's only been one poll that's shown Allen within single digits of Collins from any pollsters, however, and that was a Rasmussen poll taken in June. Allen's got a lot of money (as does Collins), but he's got a pretty steep hill to climb if he expects to topple Collins, who not only is at 55% with leaners but is also at 53% before leaners are included.

Of course people will accuse me of selectively giving updates at times where McCain seems to be surging rather than the other way around... and they would be right. The reality is that with the way the story line has been told by the MSM, it is only really news when Obama is "not" well on his way to some sort of cakewalk win in November. Well, right now, Obama is "not" well on his way to any cakewalk... at least not according to recent polling.

In both national tracking polls, the Obama lead (that had been 4-8 points) is now back to within margin of error. Gallup has the race tied at 45% and Rasmussen has closed to within one point today. But more alarming for Obama fans is some of the recent state polls. Colorado just moved back to McCain as Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Rocky Mountain News put out polling showing McCain leading. Rasmussen and Quinnipiac had had Obama leading by 3 and 5 points. In Ohio, Rasmussen now shows McCain leading, and even PPD (the Democratic pollster) has the race tied (after showing Obama up 8 last month). In Nevada, Rasmussen now shows McCain winning by 3 rather than Obama winning by 2. So if you move Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada back to McCain it puts the race at 274-264 for McCain.

Now this varies from the RCP totals only by Indiana which RCP shows as an Obama state based on polls that are nearly two months old. Quite frankly I want to see a new poll or two before moving a state won by Bush by 21% into Obama territory. Scott Elliot still shows these three states as Obama states (showing Obama up by 0.1 and 0.3 in Nevada and Colorado by his formula) and up in Ohio after dropping the latest Rasmussen poll (McCain up 10) from his average. With all due respect to Elliot, this is something I see as sort of a flaw to his formula this early in the game. There just are not enough polls to create an average if you limit it to 15 days or even 30 days... and your formula is at the whim of whatever pollster is the latest (even if it it the Demoratic Pollster PPD as is the case in Ohio). Electoral Vote shows the race at 275-250 with 13 (Virgina) even. But again, if you take out Indiana from the mix, it would be 264 for Obama, 261 for McCain with Virgina even. Almost identical to my calculations.

Now... even as my own formula shows McCain actually winning right now, I am not convinced that he is the favorite at this point. It is still hypothetically Obama's to lose. Just too many "close states" that are favoring McCain right now, and it would take the perfect storm for them to all fall his way. I more point this out to show how quickly things can change and how close this election is right now.

John McCain committed what may turn out to be a very harmful campaign gaffe in an interview last week with a Colorado newspaper, the Pueblo Chieftain. McCain called for the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which determines how water is diverted from the Colorado to serve the seven states that comprise the Colorado River basin, to be renegotiated to give more water to the three downstream states in the Compact at the expense of the upstream states. The proposal was immediately condemned by Colorado politicians from both parties, and has drawn wider attention thanks to a humorous op-ed piece in the Denver Post.

Water is the lifeblood of the west, where local precipitation rarely is sufficient to meet local needs, and water rights – the legal right of farms, ranches, towns, and cities to draw a certain volume of water from rivers to meet their own needs – are jealously guarded, and nobody willingly surrenders their rights. Without water, farms and ranches dry up, and cities and towns cannot survive. In the Rio Grande valley there are legal rights to water that date back to the early days of Spanish colonization in the 1600’s. The earliest water rights on the Colorado River are more recent, since the Spanish settled that valley later than they settled the Rio Grande, but the volume of water in that river – a river that was still wild (i.e. not yet dammed to conserve water for human use) until Hoover Dam was constructed - is much greater.

For McCain to call for renegotiating the Compact in the middle of the presidential campaign was stupid. McCain’s running for president of the United States but acting like an advocate of Arizona at the expense of the four states in the upper Colorado River basin. Those four states include two swing states, Colorado and New Mexico, which will have to ask themselves how much a potential McCain presidency threatens their lifeblood.